April 22th 2024

The ECB's first rate cut is expected in June

In the money market, on the European side, the ECB will report its monetary policy decision, where it is expected to keep rates at current levels and prepare the markets for the first cut at the next meeting in June.

The minutes of the March meeting point to the start of rate cuts probably in June, when wage data for the first quarter of this year and the new macro picture will be known. The probability of a drop of 25 basis points rises from 75% to 83%, in a context in which the risks to growth continue to be biased to the downside.

In any case, the rate cut would be limited, with four cuts in 2024 and a restrictive monetary policy would be maintained, in a scenario in which prices continue to moderate, although with persistence of inflationary pressures in services. President Lagarde commented: “we will know a little more in April, but we will know much more in June.”

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