April 2th 2024

FED and ECB cautious for the moment about rate cuts

The United States' fourth-quarter GDP was revised up by 3,4%, while retail sales reported by Germany fell 2,7% year-on-year in February. The American PCE deflator for the month of March was revised slightly upwards, although in general terms, it was in line with expectations.

Comments from the Fed's hawkish Waller indicated that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates, and that recently released data reveals it is prudent to maintain the current path to reduce inflation back to 2%.

On this side of the pond, Panetta of the ECB indicated that inflationary risks are reducing in the Euro Zone and the necessary conditions are in place to begin rate cuts. The common rhetoric of recent speeches points to a first rate cut in June. The forecasts that we see in different market players indicate consecutive cuts at the beginning (June, July and September) that will decelerate at a quarterly rate from the fourth quarter, to a total of 100 basis points in 2024.

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